Research index
09 notes · Updated weekly
Everything I’ve written,
in one place.
This is where I keep my longer pieces on monetary policy, energy, private markets, and whatever else I’m trying to understand at the time.
9 notes
- 01 Capital11 min read↗
Private Credit's First Real Test: What the Default Rate Is Not Telling You
The asset class reported defaults below 2% while roughly 6% of loans had stopped paying cash interest. The gap between those two numbers is the entire risk.
- 02 Macro11 min read↗
Japan and the Price of Duration Everywhere
The 40-year JGB broke 4% for the first time since the maturity existed. When the world's anchor buyer of long bonds starts needing its capital at home, every long bond reprices.
- 03 Capital11 min read↗
The AI Build-Out Becomes a Credit Story
Incremental debt funded 9% of hyperscaler capex in 2024 and 32% by mid-2026. The risk has moved from shareholders who signed up for it to bondholders who did not.
- 04 Markets10 min read↗
The Glut That Did Not Arrive: Global Gas After Ras Laffan
Everyone underwrote an LNG surplus for 2027. Two destroyed liquefaction trains and a delayed expansion pushed it to the end of the decade, and contracts written for the old schedule are now mispriced.
- 05 Macro10 min read↗
The Rupee, the Outflow, and What the Reserve Bank Actually Controls
Foreign investors pulled more from Indian equities in seven months than in all of 2025, and the rupee hit a record low. Almost none of the cause was decided in India.
- 06 Macro12 min read↗
The Shadow Monetary Policy of Stablecoins: Threats and the Vulnerability of Multi-Issuance Architectures
The stablecoin market is roughly $313 billion, not the several trillion usually quoted. Getting the scale right changes the diagnosis: the danger is structural, not size.
- 07 Markets11 min read↗
The Ripple Effect: Economic Ramifications of the US-Iran Conflict on Middle Eastern Markets
The 2026 war was not primarily a price shock. It was a routing shock, and the Gulf states that owned a pipeline out of the strait had a different war from the ones that did not.
- 08 Macro12 min read↗
Central Bank Dilemmas: Navigating Interest Rates in a High-Inflation Decade
The ECB raised rates in June while forecasting inflation back at target only in 2028 and growth of 0.8%. That single decision contains the whole argument about what central banks are now optimising for.
- 09 Capital10 min read↗
The Private Equity Evolution: Value Creation Beyond Financial Engineering
Two of the three levers that produced buyout returns for fifteen years have been closed by the rate environment. The arithmetic of what remains is the whole story.